Bitcoin conditions today

They describe the market, not what anyone should do. Three readings go into it, and each one leans cold, sits in the middle, or leans hot:

Market mood (Fear & Greed, 0 to 100): fear leans cold, extreme fear counts double. Neutral (roughly 47 to 54) counts as the middle. Greed leans hot, extreme greed counts double.
Price vs. its 200-day average: more than 5% below leans cold (more than 10% below counts double). Within 5% either side is the middle. More than 5% above leans hot (more than 20% above counts double).
Distance from the all-time high: more than 50% below leans cold, 20 to 50% below is the middle, closer than 20% leans hot.

Added up, the result runs from +5 to −5. Cold is +3 or more, Hot is −3 or less, Mild is everything in between. Many long-term holders buy a little every month whatever the temperature: a cold market means more sats for the same money, a hot one means the savings already look good.

This tool was built by Imo Babics, a Bitcoiner since 2017. He scaled Bitpanda to over 1 million users.

This is a personal project. It exists because the information that helps new Bitcoin investors make calm, informed decisions is scattered across charts, indices, and data sources. This tool brings it together in one place. It is listed on lopp.net, Jameson Lopp's curated directory of Bitcoin resources.

The Fear & Greed Index measures the crowd's mood: how scared or excited the market is right now. It draws on factors like price momentum, volatility, social media activity and trading volume, and runs from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed).

It doesn't predict the price. It shows when emotions run high in either direction, and those moments have often come near turning points. This page uses the publisher's own labels (extreme fear, fear, neutral, greed, extreme greed), so the reading here always matches the label you see next to the number.

The 200-day moving average (200DMA) is the average of Bitcoin's daily price over the past 200 days (Bitcoin trades every day, weekends included). It's one of the most widely watched long-term trend indicators in both traditional finance and crypto, which is part of why it matters. When enough participants use the same signal, it becomes self-reinforcing.

200 days is long enough to smooth out short-term noise while staying responsive to genuine trend shifts. Shorter windows (50-day, 100-day) react too quickly; annual averages can lag meaningful turning points.

One known limitation: because the average is rolling, a sharp price move that happened ~200 days ago will drop out of the calculation as time passes, which can cause the average to shift noticeably even if recent price action is flat. This tool uses it as one of three inputs, not as a standalone signal, precisely for this reason.

The distance from the all-time high (ATH) shows how far the price sits below the highest price Bitcoin has ever reached. Deep drawdowns of 50% or more have happened in every Bitcoin cycle so far, and so have new highs after them.

It's not a prediction. It places today in the cycle: far below the peak usually means sentiment is worn out, close to the peak usually means excitement is high.

Fear & Greed Index: CoinMarketCap, with Alternative.me as a backup. Bitcoin price, 200-day average and all-time high: CoinGecko. Market context: FRED, the ECB and CoinGecko. The price refreshes every 5 minutes; the other readings update with it.

No. This tool shows what publicly available market data indicates, based on signals that long-term Bitcoin investors have historically found useful. It doesn't tell you what to do with your money. No one can predict the Bitcoin price: not this tool, not any analyst, not any algorithm.

Make your own decisions. If in doubt, speak to a qualified financial adviser.